Founder POV: Actual GP First, Then Theoretical GP
The gap between actual and theoretical GP is where money leaks become visible, but only after actual GP is trustworthy.
Founder, Hops
This article is adapted from a LinkedIn post by Robbie Francis, Founder of Hops.
Actual GP is the truth of what happened.
Theoretical GP is what should have happened based on your recipes and sales.
Both matter, but in a strict order.
The Core Problem
Teams often jump straight to theoretical analysis before they trust actual GP inputs.
That creates precision on top of unreliable foundations.
What Operators Usually Do
They spot an overall GP miss but cannot isolate where the loss happened.
Without clean actuals and departmental ownership, investigation turns into guesswork.
What Needs to Change
- Make actual GP reliable first (purchases, stock, waste, transfers, discounts).
- Split GP by accountable department (for most sites, wet/dry is the start).
- Apply recipe and SOP discipline consistently.
- Use theoretical-vs-actual deltas to pinpoint ingredient-level issues.
Founder POV
“Theoretical GP helps you diagnose exactly where money is going, but only once your actual GP number is clean.”
Why This Matters
The gap between actual and theoretical is often where recoverable margin lives.
When process data is clean, that gap becomes a practical action list instead of noise.
About Robbie Francis
Robbie Francis is the Founder of Hops. He has spent years building and implementing hospitality technology with operators, focused on simplifying back-of-house operations across inventory and finance.
Follow Robbie on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/robbiefrancis
View the original LinkedIn post: All that really matters is your actual GP
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